The consolidation pattern of the hottest rubber ma

  • Detail

The consolidation pattern of the rubber market is difficult to break in the short term

in 2007, there was an increasingly obvious inflation and inflation expectations in China, and the understanding of inflation will be directly related to the judgment of the price trend of commodity futures in the next stage. The essence of inflation is actually a currency problem. After the currency is issued, there will be two results: first, it will not enter the circulation field and will be stored as wealth by people. For example, the rich are pressed under the bed and sealed in the wall. As long as they do not enter the circulation field, they will not have much impact on the real economy. The other is to enter the circulation field, which directly increases the money stock in the circulation field. Issuing money beyond the actual needs of the economy will soon lead to inflation. China should be wary of changing from structural inflation to comprehensive inflation in the coming years, because the central bank will continue to issue a large amount of money

only a few weeks from the end of this year, the rising trend of the energy futures market since September finally began to subside. At this time, traders began to settle accounts at the end of the year. It seems that many traders are willing to withdraw from the oil market when the futures price of crude oil falls by 10%. Other bearish factors in the crude oil market include the rebound of the US dollar exchange rate and Indonesia's statement in support of OPEC's production increase. Indonesia said that if the OPEC ministerial meeting held in Abu Dhabi on December 5 decided that the world oil market needed more oil, Indonesia would support OPEC to increase crude oil production. With the crude oil price further falling below $90/barrel, OPEC is less likely to increase production. In particular, any output agreed to increase in December must not be produced until January, and it will not reach the market until February, when the market is already facing a busy and seasonal decline in the demand season

according to the current economic situation, there will be a "significant" change in China's macroeconomic policy: a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy

this is the first time that the central macro-control policy has changed its course since China began to implement the "double steady" fiscal and monetary policies in 2004. The government's control goal has changed from "single prevention" (preventing excessive economic growth) in 2007 to "double prevention" (preventing economic growth from turning from too fast to overheating, and preventing prices from changing from structural rise to obvious inflation). Therefore, this year's central economic work is not the same as before. According to the agenda, after the central economic work conference on December has studied the specific economic market, the national development and Reform Commission will hold a beautiful 2008 work conference on December 7 to determine the economic growth and price targets for 2008. The central bank and the Ministry of finance will also hold meetings in succession to come up with money and credit supply plans, fiscal expenditure plans, etc. According to several people close to the meeting. 4. The lubricating oil analyst learned that the service life of 2008 is more than twice that of traditional anti-corrosion coatings. The regulation of money supply will be one of the most important means in regulation, which is a means of directly regulating economic speed and prices; There will be no suspense about further tightening the combination of land, credit, industry, interest rates and other policies

it is also worth noting that behind the high growth of CPI, there are other pressures: first, there is cost driven inflation pressure. Since entering the 21st century, the price rise of China's upstream products has been significantly higher than that of downstream products. Due to various reasons, the transmission of upstream product prices to downstream product prices has been hindered. However, when the environment changes, especially when the price rise of upstream products accumulates to a certain extent, this transmission is bound to occur, forming a cost driven inflationary pressure. In July, although the price rise of some upstream products was lower than that of CPI, the commodity price rise of enterprises worthy of attention was still higher than that of CPI. At the same time, the price of upstream products has shown an upward trend. What needs special attention is that with the rise of the price of means of production, the cost of agricultural production has risen sharply, leading to the rise of food costs

second, there is demand driven inflationary pressure. Due to various complex reasons, the problem of excess liquidity in China's macroeconomic operation has not been alleviated. Since the second quarter of 2007, the growth rate of M1 and M2 has gradually accelerated. Relatively excessive money supply must be the direct cause of demand driven inflation. In addition, a new situation emerged in the first half of this year. The income growth rate of both urban and rural residents increased. The growth rate of per capita disposable income of urban residents has been higher than economic growth, and the growth rate of per capita net income of rural residents is also close to economic growth. At a time when the current CPI growth is accelerating, the growth rate of residents' income exceeds the economic growth rate, which will also become a factor in the formation of demand driven inflation

third, the excessively high rate of economic growth creates pressure on prices. Since 2003, the growth rate of China's GDP has been higher than 10%, and has been accelerating year by year. This high-speed growth of macro-economy is mainly achieved through the high-speed growth of industry and investment. At the same time of rapid economic growth, some economic structural problems tend to deteriorate, especially the long-standing problems in the proportion structure of investment and consumption and the tertiary industrial structure have not been improved, but are becoming more and more serious. In such a state, excessive economic growth and investment growth will become the drivers of inflation

fourth, the realization of energy conservation and emission reduction goals and tasks will cause the cost price to rise in a certain period of time. China's 11th Five Year Plan stipulates that by 2010, the energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 20% and the emission of major pollutants will be reduced by 10%. In order to achieve these two goals, we must increase investment in a certain period of time, which will inevitably lead to the rise of production costs, and then form the pressure of rising prices in the initial stage

fifth, the price rise of some major commodities in the international market will have an impact on the domestic market price of our country. Recently, while the prices of important commodities such as oil and grain are on the rise in the world market, the U.S. subprime debt problem has erupted, which has further enhanced the uncertainty and instability in the international economic environment. These factors, especially the rising price trend of some important commodities, may affect the price level of China's domestic market to varying degrees

the blue book points out that the above five inflationary pressure factors have existed and accumulated in the past period, and their impact is bound to show in some way and to varying degrees. In addition, the 2008 Olympic Games will also increase China's domestic consumption demand and promote the rise of consumer prices. Therefore, in the coming period, consumer prices, and even the overall price level, may be higher than in the first few years of this century

therefore, the dilemma facing the Chinese government is unprecedented, because on the one hand, facing the appreciation of the RMB, a large number of hot money are pouring in, on the other hand, it is the export obstruction caused by this, and then the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is developing in depth, which may slow down the U.S. economy, and the inflationary pressure caused by the rapid growth of fixed investment and the change of consumption structure in China is in the rising stage, Although macro-control policies are frequent, the world has little effect because the real interest rate that prevents investment growth is still at a low level. These factors have led to the intensification of the current commodity market shock, and the long and short differences are also increasing day by day, so the current dilemma of the rubber market is not difficult to understand

in terms of operation, investors are advised to wait and see and wait for opportunities to intervene

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI